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Prediction for CME (2025-03-27T04:23:00-CME-001)

CME Observed Time: 2025-03-27T04:23Z
iSWAS Layout URL: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/38039/-1
CME Note: Faint CME to the northeast with a somewhat fuzzy loop-like front that is slightly brighter in the first couple images in STEREO A COR2. The source is not clear but the fit with two coronagraphs suggests AR 4043, indicating that the source could have been a C3.9 flare centered somewhat NW of AR 4043 (N15E40) and peaking at 2025-03-27T03:12Z. There are no significant coronal signatures except for the flare itself seen in SDO AIA 131. This CME with low confidence may have arrived at Earth as a minor interplanetary shock near 2025-04-01T17:29Z as a small but rapid magnetic field enhancement and not much variation in the wind speed.
CME Shock Arrival Time: 2025-04-01T17:29Z
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
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Predicted Arrival Time: 2025-04-01T06:00Z (-7.0h, +7.0h)
Predicted geomagnetic storm max Kp range due to CME: 3.0 - 4.0
Prediction Method: WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M)
Prediction Method Note:

https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/WSA-ENLIL/38043/1
Model Inputs:
2025-03-27T04:23:00-CME-001 with CME Analysis: Lon.=-41.0, Lat.=20.0, Speed=269.0, HalfAngle=27.0, Time21.5=2025-03-27T17:25Z

Model Output:

Earth Impact:
Earth Shock Arrival Time = 2025-04-01T06:00Z (+- 7 hours)
(kp)90=3
(kp)180=4

Other Location(s) Impact:
Lucy with esitmated shock arrival time 2024-04-04T12:00Z
Mars with esitmated shock arrival time 2025-04-03T12:00Z
Europa Clipper with esitmated shock arrival time 2025-04-04T04:00Z
OSIRIS-APEX with esitmated shock arrival time 2025-04-04T00:00Z

Inner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250327_172500_2.0_anim.tim-den.gif
Inner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250327_172500_2.0_anim.tim-vel.gif
Inner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250327_172500_2.0_anim.tim-vel-Stereo_A.gif
Inner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250327_172500_2.0_anim.tim-den-Stereo_A.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250327_172500_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250327_172500_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Kp_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250327_172500_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_STA_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250327_172500_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_PSP_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250327_172500_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_SolO_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250327_172500_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Merc_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250327_172500_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Mars_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250327_172500_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Lucy_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250327_172500_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Bepi_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250327_172500_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Venus_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250327_172500_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Juice_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250327_172500_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Osiris_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250327_172500_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_EuropaClippr_timeline.gif

Lead Time: 123.93 hour(s)
Difference: 11.48 hour(s)
Prediction submitted by Anna Chulaki (M2M SWAO) on 2025-03-27T13:33Z

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